2105 Deer Lodge Hwy

Sunbright, TN 37726

$59,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax + insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $416/mo
• Annual: $4,997/yr
• Cap rate: 14.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.79%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $16,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($989 rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#419 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #128 of 139 in TN (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (math 24% / reading 20%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 553 students, 0% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #279 of 332 statewide, top 86%, 376 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP.
• Morgan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $60k implies a 508% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.5% in Sunbright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.