417 W Mill St

Winona, MN 55987

$194,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,459/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-716/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-716/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (25.1% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $146k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in MN, #1,558 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Winona Area Public School District (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #244 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winona Middle (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #192 of 258 statewide, top 77%, 641 students, 50% FRL); Winona Senior High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #222 of 471 statewide, top 50%, 881 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.0%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Winona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winona County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $195k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Winona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.