417 W Mill St · Winona, MN 55987

$194,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1926 3,049 sqft lot $203/sqft · 17% above area Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom home within walking distance of West Lake. This home features a 3 season porch, hardwood floors, ample storage, and a full basement.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Block from the park
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• BLOCK FROM THE PARK
• FULL BASEMENT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• QUIET WEST CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: $28 other annual assessment (per records)
• Financial info: Conventional mortgage type

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage(s); One-car garage with automatic opener; Garage dimensions approximately 20 x 14 with 7' high by 8' wide door
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas fuel; Electric service with circuit breakers and 100 amp service (Xcel Energy)
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half levels; Main-level entry
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Foundation dimensions approximately 32 x 24; Built with an unfinished full basement offering storage space
• Exterior features: Enclosed front porch; Stucco exterior; Light tree coverage; City street frontage with curbs, paved streets, sidewalks, street lights and storm sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Main floor bedrooms (including primary); Upper-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Informal dining area; Main floor primary bedroom; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup (lower level); Washer and dryer listed among appliances; Utility room and workshop in lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-716/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Winona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in MN, #1,558 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Winona Area Public School District (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #244 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winona Middle (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #192 of 258 statewide, top 77%, 641 students, 50% FRL); Winona Senior High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #222 of 471 statewide, top 50%, 881 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.0%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Winona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winona County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $195k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,905 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -2.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470 7th Street St W	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$189	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-27,730
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,810
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55987

• Rents YoY: 18.0%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,308/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $184,365

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-4	+0% $-60	+5% $-115	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-117	+0% $-60	+5% $-2	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-10	base $-60	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $194,900 Active 310-char remark
2. 2018-12-10
   historical 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home within walking distance of West Lake. This home features a 3 season porch, hardwood floors, ample storage, and a full basement.

3. 2018-12-10
   historical

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home within walking distance of West Lake. This home features a 3 season porch, hardwood floors, ample storage, and a full basement.

4. 2017-10-31
   soldstatus $101,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home within walking distance of West Lake. This home features a 3 season porch, hardwood floors, ample storage, and a full basement.

5. 2017-10-31
   soldstatus $101,000

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home within walking distance of West Lake. This home features a 3 season porch, hardwood floors, ample storage, and a full basement.

6. 2017-09-15
   listed $105,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom home within walking distance of West Lake. This home features a 3 season porch, hardwood floors, ample storage, and a full basement.

7. 2015-03-03
   listed $104,900
8. 2004-11-19
   soldstatus $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,308 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$1,308
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$4,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$999
• After-tax cash flow: $283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2744070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,678
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6058
• State rank: #244 of 301 in MN

Livability — Winona

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #1558

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winona, MN
• County: Winona County · 34,072 people
• City population: 34,072
• Metro: Winona, MN
• Population (ZIP): 34,072
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Winona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,614 people
• By 2030: 50,243 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 48,142 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 45,872 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 42,416 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 40,031 · -20.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winona

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: -4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.9 2020: D+0.4 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+12.9 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.61%
• Current HPI: 193.7509
• Rent YoY: ▲ 17.99%
• Metro: Winona, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+87.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $194,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-31 Sold (MLS) $101,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-15 Listed $105,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-03 Listed $104,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,308 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.