703 Private Road 1501

Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$173,400D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 271 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$909
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $802/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $48,552

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $173k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($802/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.