703 Private Road 1501 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$173,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · SingleFamily · 271 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.30 ac lot $125/sqft · 11% below area Est $196k · 11% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

Key facts

• All new utilities
• Modular home
• New construction

Tags

• MODULAR HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SOLID SLAB FOUNDATION
• ALL NEW UTILITIES
• CUSTOM FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $173k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($520/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meyer El (446 students, 84% FRL); Mcdowell Middle (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 420 students, 63% FRL); Hondo H S (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 522 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 27% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 608 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,649
• List price: $173,400
• Delta: -11.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
560 PR 1515	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	3mo	$250,000	$186	74
224 Private Road 1517	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-2%)	24mo	$152,990	$113	66
660 Pr 1511	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-4%)	13mo	$185,000	$139	60
692 Private Road 1514	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,337 (-4%)	14mo	$129,900	$97	60
161 Private Road 1520	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	13mo	$140,000	$117	58
262 Private Road 1509	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-12%)	6mo	$52,000	$43	54
589 PR 1507	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+9%)	7mo	$302,420	$200	51
360 Private Road 1509	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-12%)	10mo	$185,000	$152	49
758 Pr 1513	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+12%)	13mo	$209,000	$135	49
757 PR 1517	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-12%)	22mo	$172,750	$142	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-25,314
• Equity at exit: $25,855

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,393
• Equity at exit: $14,992

Cash invested: $48,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $204,945 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 100 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 608
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$909
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$217 /mo · $2,601/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,517

Max offer price $173,400

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $103	+0% $43	+5% $-17	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-19	+0% $43	+5% $105	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $87	base $43	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,350
• Closing costs: $5,202
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1016 Private Road 1518 Unit 1016P Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,450	$0.82	18d	1	0.46mi
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	93d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $173,400 Active 271 DOM
2. 2025-12-16
   price $173,400 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

3. 2025-12-15
   status Back on Market 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

4. 2025-11-30
   historical 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

5. 2025-10-28
   price $104,900 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

6. 2025-10-08
   price $113,981 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

7. 2025-08-18
   listed $195,000 New 956-char remark

   Show marketing remark (956 chars)

   Brand-New Home on 0.3+/- Acres - Under $175K! Own brand-new construction in Medina County at a price that's nearly impossible to find. Situated on a spacious 0.336-acre lot, this modular home offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. Built on a solid slab foundation and eligible for FHA, VA, and Conventional financing. Take advantage of a 3/2/1 rate buy-down (starting at 3.5percent, subject to approval) with estimated payments as low as $778.64/month. Ask about our rate buy down specials. Buyers can still select interior finishes and personalize the home to match their style. One of the best-priced new homes in the area in over a year-don't miss this opportunity. Final pricing to be confirmed with builder. Photos are of a similar completed home and shown for reference only. Final pricing to be confirmed with our team. Photos are of a similar completed home for reference only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,713
• − Property taxes: −$2,601
• − Insurance: −$867
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$5,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $1,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,935–$20,805 screening

This brand-new home on a spacious 0.336-acre lot offers modern design, energy efficiency, and the peace of mind that comes with all-new systems and utilities. The home is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Meyer El Middle Mcdowell Middle F TX #827/1,662 Nat'l #7,347/14,009 High Hondo H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bandera · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,594
• Household income: $54,500
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $173,400 LERA
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $104,900 LERA
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $113,981 LERA
• 2025-08-18 Listed $195,000 LERA