22 Bridle Path Trl

Stepney, CT 06468

$949,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,165 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,981
• Tax + insurance: −$1,637
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-4,074/mo
• Annual: $-48,891/yr
• Cap rate: 1.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.13%
• DSCR: 0.19
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $265,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (70.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (66.1% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $285k (70.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monroe School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #32 of 153 in CT (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 852 units permitted in Greater Bridgeport Planning Region in 2024 (698 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $567k; list at $950k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.