22 Bridle Path Trl · Stepney, CT 06468

$949,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1995 2.02 ac lot $300/sqft · 19% above area Est $925k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautifully maintained home offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and outdoor living. Set on a spacious and secluded lot, the property truly shines with its stunning backyard-featuring a brand new deck, expansive patio, custom stonework, and a lower-level fire pit area ideal for relaxing or entertaining. In the warmer months, the yard comes alive with natural beauty, while evenings are filled with the peaceful sounds of nature from the nearby pond. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting layout highlighted by an oversized living room with a cozy fireplace-perfect for gatherings, holidays, or quiet nights at home. Large windows throughout the home provide abundant natural light and create a refreshing airflow when opened, adding to the overall comfort and feel of the space. The setting is just as impressive as the home itself, located on a private and low-traffic street where neighbors enjoy a quiet atmosphere and a true sense of community. Whether you're hosting, unwinding, or simply enjoying the seasons, this home offers a lifestyle that's hard to match. Don't miss your opportunity to experience everything this special property has to offer.

Key facts

• 2.02 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (70.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (65.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (70.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monroe School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #32 of 153 in CT (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 852 units permitted in Greater Bridgeport Planning Region in 2024 (698 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $567k; list at $950k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,620 (70.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.99%
• DSCR: 0.20
• GRM: 24.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $925,368
• List price: $949,900
• Delta: 2.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Rockwood Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	3,132 (-1%)	12mo	$785,000	$251	74
49 Quarter Horse Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,538 (+12%)	6mo	$880,000	$249	68
327 Hattertown Rd	0.16mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,950 (-7%)	15mo	$770,000	$261	64
45 Blanket Meadow Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	3,340 (+6%)	17mo	$850,000	$254	61
34 Birchwood Rd	0.37mi	3/4.0 (-1)	3,328 (+5%)	6mo	$595,000	$179	58
87 Huntingtown Rd	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,840 (-10%)	12mo	$480,000	$169	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-411,357
• Equity at exit: $141,633

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.59×
• Total profit: $-689,459
• Equity at exit: $82,130

Cash invested: $265,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06468

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 24.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,981
• Tax from tax record: −$1,186 /mo · $14,231/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-4,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,378

Max offer price $284,620

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,506	-5% $-3,774	+0% $-4,043	+5% $-4,312	+10% $-4,581
Rent	-10% $-4,301	-5% $-4,172	+0% $-4,043	+5% $-3,914	+10% $-3,786
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,565	-0.5pp $-3,802	base $-4,043	+0.5pp $-4,289	+1.0pp $-4,540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,475
• Closing costs: $28,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Under Contract 1211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

   Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautifully maintained home offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and outdoor living. Set on a spacious and secluded lot, the property truly shines with its stunning backyard-featuring a brand new deck, expansive patio, custom stonework, and a lower-level fire pit area ideal for relaxing or entertaining. In the warmer months, the yard comes alive with natural beauty, while evenings are filled with the peaceful sounds of nature from the nearby pond. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting layout highlighted by an oversized living room with a cozy fireplace-perfect for gatherings, holidays, or quiet nights at home. Large windows throughout the home provide abundant natural light and create a refreshing airflow when opened, adding to the overall comfort and feel of the space. The setting is just as impressive as the home itself, located on a private and low-traffic street where neighbors enjoy a quiet atmosphere and a true sense of community. Whether you're hosting, unwinding, or simply enjoying the seasons, this home offers a lifestyle that's hard to match. Don't miss your opportunity to experience everything this special property has to offer.

2. 2026-05-01
   listed $949,900 Active 1211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

   Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautifully maintained home offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and outdoor living. Set on a spacious and secluded lot, the property truly shines with its stunning backyard-featuring a brand new deck, expansive patio, custom stonework, and a lower-level fire pit area ideal for relaxing or entertaining. In the warmer months, the yard comes alive with natural beauty, while evenings are filled with the peaceful sounds of nature from the nearby pond. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting layout highlighted by an oversized living room with a cozy fireplace-perfect for gatherings, holidays, or quiet nights at home. Large windows throughout the home provide abundant natural light and create a refreshing airflow when opened, adding to the overall comfort and feel of the space. The setting is just as impressive as the home itself, located on a private and low-traffic street where neighbors enjoy a quiet atmosphere and a true sense of community. Whether you're hosting, unwinding, or simply enjoying the seasons, this home offers a lifestyle that's hard to match. Don't miss your opportunity to experience everything this special property has to offer.

3. 2026-04-18
   historical $949,900 1211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

   Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautifully maintained home offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and outdoor living. Set on a spacious and secluded lot, the property truly shines with its stunning backyard-featuring a brand new deck, expansive patio, custom stonework, and a lower-level fire pit area ideal for relaxing or entertaining. In the warmer months, the yard comes alive with natural beauty, while evenings are filled with the peaceful sounds of nature from the nearby pond. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting layout highlighted by an oversized living room with a cozy fireplace-perfect for gatherings, holidays, or quiet nights at home. Large windows throughout the home provide abundant natural light and create a refreshing airflow when opened, adding to the overall comfort and feel of the space. The setting is just as impressive as the home itself, located on a private and low-traffic street where neighbors enjoy a quiet atmosphere and a true sense of community. Whether you're hosting, unwinding, or simply enjoying the seasons, this home offers a lifestyle that's hard to match. Don't miss your opportunity to experience everything this special property has to offer.

4. 2012-11-19
   soldstatus $567,000 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Fabulous Colonial With Many Updates. New Kitchen (2012) W/ Glazed Maple Cabinetry, Ss Appliance, Granite Tops. Fam.Rm W/Fplc,, Whirlpool Master Bath, Fin. Walkout Ll., Cul De Sac Street In Wonderful Neighborhood

5. 2012-07-29
   listed $599,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Fabulous Colonial With Many Updates. New Kitchen (2012) W/ Glazed Maple Cabinetry, Ss Appliance, Granite Tops. Fam.Rm W/Fplc,, Whirlpool Master Bath, Fin. Walkout Ll., Cul De Sac Street In Wonderful Neighborhood

6. 2012-04-26
   soldstatus $400,000
7. 2012-03-05
   listed $420,000
8. 1996-01-29
   soldstatus $356,000
9. 1996-01-29
   soldstatus $356,000
10. 1995-06-13
    listed $369,900
11. 1995-06-12
    soldstatus $110,000
12. 1995-05-02
    listed $117,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,231 · $1,186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,279 · $1,440/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,048/yr (+$254/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,209
• − Property taxes: −$14,231
• − Insurance: −$5,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,130
• − Management: −$3,130
• − Depreciation: −$27,633
• Taxable loss: −$67,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-32,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe School District
• NCES district ID: 0902550
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $106,717
• Composite: 56.4/100
• National rank: #1160
• State rank: #32 of 153 in CT

Livability — Stepney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stepney, CT
• Population (ZIP): 18,833

Population outlook (Greater Bridgeport County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 365,581

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greater Bridgeport

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.3) · D 60.9% · R 37.6% · Other 1.5%
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -397.23%
• Current HPI: 186.8542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+705.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $949,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $949,900 Smart MLS
• 2012-11-19 Sold (MLS) $567,000 Smart MLS
• 2012-07-29 Listed $599,900 Smart MLS
• 2012-04-26 Sold (MLS) $400,000 Smart MLS
• 2012-03-05 Listed $420,000 Smart MLS
• 1996-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $356,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-29 Sold (MLS) $356,000 Smart MLS
• 1995-06-13 Listed $369,900 Smart MLS
• 1995-06-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 Smart MLS
• 1995-05-02 Listed $117,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $14,231 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.