2616 W Forest Park Ave

Baltimore, MD 21215

$124,999B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1930 · Townhouse · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $481/mo
• Annual: $5,767/yr
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.48%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $481 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 619 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 113d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $125k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be old and in poor condition.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding is worn and discolored.
• Major: flooring — The flooring is old and in need of refinishing or replacement.
• Major: interior walls/paint — The walls and paint are worn and in need of repainting.
• Major: HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of maintenance.