2616 W Forest Park Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$129,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Townhouse public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1930 2,089 sqft lot $96/sqft · 23% below area Est $187k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Location for primary residence or an investment opportunity. Strong ARV potential based on nearby renovated comps. You can enjoy this all brick porch front 3 level Townhome with central HVAC and Rear Parking, Partially Finished Basement Great addition to rental portfolio with high rental demand, potential for a flip or long-term appreciation opportunities. Also ideal for homebuyers looking to build equity in a thriving neighborhood. Ideally located in the established Liberty Heights community, this home offers easy access to some of the area’s most notable landmarks and everyday conveniences. BCC College , Mondawmin Mall, walk to Bus station etc This home is being offered in As-

Key facts

• Central hvac
• Rear parking
• Easy access

Tags

• BRICK PORCH FRONT
• CENTRAL HVAC
• REAR PARKING
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• THRIVING NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street, unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp electric service; Cable TV available; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Flat rubber roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar and block foundation; Vinyl-clad windows; Partially finished basement
• Exterior features: Bump-outs; Patio(s); Porch(es)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Radiator heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Dry wall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $130k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,099 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.72%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,242
• List price: $129,999
• Delta: -27.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3014 Tioga Pkwy	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,360 (0%)	4mo	$180,000	$132	81
2213 Poplar Grove St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,338 (-2%)	6mo	$80,000	$60	59
3635 Wabash Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+3%)	4mo	$159,000	$114	59
2314 Koko Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+3%)	9mo	$240,000	$171	56
2326 Braddish Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (+10%)	2mo	$159,000	$106	56
2304 Ashburton St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,520 (+12%)	4mo	$255,000	$168	51
2863 Woodbrook Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-3%)	7mo	$55,000	$42	50
2311 Orem Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (-6%)	5mo	$35,000	$27	49
3028 Windsor Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5	1,444 (+6%)	6mo	$185,000	$128	49
3012 Hanlon Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,272 (-6%)	6mo	$265,000	$208	46
2305 Poplar Grove St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	2mo	$118,000	$98	44
3032 Windsor Ave	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,444 (+6%)	9mo	$260,000	$180	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,389
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $38,181
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,962/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $483	+0% $447	+5% $410	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $375	+0% $447	+5% $518	+10% $590
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $480	base $447	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3104 Tioga Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,050	$1.25	23d	1	0.15mi
2910 Reisterstown Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	950	$1,414	$1.49	16d	4	0.23mi
3401 Woodbrook Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	25d	1	0.50mi
2738 N Longwood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,399	$1.37	45d	1	0.56mi
3001 Carlisle Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	45d	1	0.57mi
2742 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	45d	2	0.62mi
2216 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	1.5	1392	$1,975	$1.42	25d	1	0.62mi
3028 Hanlon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,711	$1.43	25d	1	0.63mi
2204 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	6d	1	0.63mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	19d	1	0.63mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	0.63mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	0.66mi
2231 Orem Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$1,750	$1.54	19d	1	0.67mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	6d	1	0.71mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	25d	1	0.74mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	45d	1	0.74mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	6d	1	0.76mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	12d	1	0.80mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	0.80mi
3822 Pall Mall Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,875	$1.42	45d	1	0.94mi
2614 Pennsylvania Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,141	$1.16	6d	4	0.98mi
1722 N Monroe St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	0.99mi
2505 Woodbrook Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1256	$1,745	$1.39	3d	1	0.99mi
3632 Parkdale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	45d	1	1.03mi
1515 Retreat St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,800	$1.64	25d	1	1.04mi
1507 Retreat St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1098	$2,500	$2.28	45d	1	1.04mi
1729 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,795	$1.66	45d	1	1.05mi
1806 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	21d	1	1.05mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	25d	1	1.08mi
1624 Westwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	45d	1	1.08mi
4037 Cedardale Rd Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	16d	1	1.09mi
1616 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,695	$1.05	0d	1	1.12mi
1501 N Payson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	1.14mi
2409 Francis St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1298	$1,500	$1.16	45d	1	1.15mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,795	$1.09	0d	1	1.15mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.16mi
2511 Madison Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	45d	1	1.16mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	45d	1	1.18mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	25d	1	1.21mi
2415 Loyola Southway Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,033	$1.69	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $129,999 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,999 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,999 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,999 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,999 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,999 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,999 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $134,999 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $129,999 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,999 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $139,999 Active 757-char remark
16. 2002-05-14
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 2002-03-28
    soldstatus $60,000
18. 2002-03-08
    historical
19. 2001-11-27
    listed $72,000
20. 2001-11-21
    historical
21. 2001-07-31
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,962 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,962 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,962
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$855
• After-tax cash flow: $4,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+87.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $134,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $129,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $139,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-28 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRIS
• 2002-03-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-11-27 Listed $72,000 MRIS
• 2001-11-21 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-07-31 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,962 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.