3030 Breckenridge Ln

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40220

$189,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,670/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$415
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-409/mo
• Annual: $-4,909/yr
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.23%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $131k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Klondike Lane Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 457 students, 68% FRL); Ramsey Middle (math 11% / reading 34%, grade F, #200 of 217 statewide, top 93%, 1,008 students, 62% FRL); Seneca High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #228 of 254 statewide, top 91%, 1,309 students, 64% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 94% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $190k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Exterior paint — Some discoloration visible
• Moderate: Roof inspection — May need inspection for potential issues