3030 Breckenridge Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40220

$189,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition $130/sqft · 29% below area Est $267k · 29% under $415/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FAST POSSESSION!!! Bldg. 2, Unit #320, 3rd Floor unit w/south-east view, carport #96 near back door, enjoy the conveniences & easy living, updated appliances, parquet flooring, crown molding, nice bright kitchen, washer & dryer in laundry room, cable TV included in maint. fee. Seller furnishing a 1-Year 2-10 Home Warranty.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Community amenities
• $415 HOA

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AND DINING AREA
• FLEXIBLE THIRD BEDROOM
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Klondike Lane Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 457 students, 68% FRL); Ramsey Middle (math 11% / reading 34%, grade F, #200 of 217 statewide, top 93%, 1,008 students, 62% FRL); Seneca High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #228 of 254 statewide, top 91%, 1,309 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 94% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $190k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,800 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.23%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,084
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -28.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3120 Redbud Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-2%)	0mo	$300,000	$210	69
3140 Hunsinger Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$285,500	$183	67
7210 Kort Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-3%)	1mo	$318,500	$225	66
2832 Rockhaven Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,477 (+1%)	2mo	$300,000	$203	62
3749 Stanton Blvd	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,612 (+11%)	0mo	$287,500	$178	61
3111 Houston Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,496 (+3%)	1mo	$199,000	$133	60
3006 Klonway Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (-1%)	2mo	$205,000	$143	57
3124 Dogwood Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,375 (-6%)	2mo	$274,900	$200	56
3025 Nepperhan Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,537 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$179	55
2910 Richland Ave	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,347 (-8%)	4mo	$295,000	$219	49
3301 Hunsinger Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+14%)	2mo	$308,000	$186	46
3143 Pamela Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+15%)	2mo	$280,000	$168	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-57,566
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-86,603
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.9 mo (34%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,000 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 40220

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $130,800

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-278	-5% $-343	+0% $-409	+5% $-475	+10% $-540
Rent	-10% $-541	-5% $-475	+0% $-409	+5% $-343	+10% $-277
Rate	-1.0pp $-313	-0.5pp $-361	base $-409	+0.5pp $-458	+1.0pp $-508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 El Conquistador Pl Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,400	$1.39	120d	1	0.14mi
3311 Mid Dale Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,195	$1.26	100d	1	0.16mi
3245 Orchard Manor Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	11d	4	0.18mi
7204 Churchill Park Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,725	$1.69	1d	34	0.20mi
3413 Clingstone Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	64d	1	0.21mi
3416 Clingstone Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	94d	1	0.23mi
3416 Clingstone Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	113d	1	0.23mi
3408 Clingstone Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,300	$1.44	5d	1	0.24mi
3100 Orchard Manor Cir Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,300	$1.44	6d	1	0.24mi
3216 Hikes Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	120d	1	0.25mi
2910 Yorkshire Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	118d	1	0.54mi
2916 Richland Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,750	$1.06	89d	1	0.55mi
3017 Mid Dale Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	59d	1	0.56mi
3013 Mid Dale Ln Apt 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,100	$1.18	11d	1	0.58mi
4204 Browns Ln Unit 204 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	120d	1	0.63mi
3701 Hunsinger Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1777	$2,200	$1.24	100d	1	0.68mi
3812 Klondike Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1752	$1,895	$1.08	11d	1	0.71mi
2906 Noe Ct Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	878	$895	$1.02	120d	1	0.71mi
3712 Klondike Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	8d	1	0.71mi
3306 Allison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	3d	1	0.76mi
4200 Berkshire Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1747	$1,790	$1.02	11d	1	0.76mi
4202 Berkshire Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,000	$1.99	120d	1	0.77mi
3316 Noe Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$845	$0.89	1d	4	0.79mi
2910 Westfield Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1173	$1,875	$1.60	89d	1	0.81mi
203 Breckinridge Sq Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1175	$1,729	$1.47	3d	23	0.89mi
4007 Blossomwood Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,895	$1.71	72d	1	0.94mi
2600 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,950	$1.23	11d	1	0.94mi
3325 Breckenridge Ln Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	63d	1	0.97mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,100	$1.50	8d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	99d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	111d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,200	$1.57	11d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	77d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	83d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	72d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	59d	1	1.00mi
2510 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	63d	1	1.00mi
2500 Browns Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	11d	1	1.06mi
3036 Talisman Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1286	$2,000	$1.56	75d	1	1.06mi
3106 Rosedale Blvd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1234	$1,700	$1.38	72d	1	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of the Casa Granada subdivisionPets allowed per association restrictionsBuilding has 5 floors and 224 condominium units
• HOA & community: Condo association (monthly maintenance includes cable TV, exterior maintenance, groundskeeping, internet, sewer, snow removal, trash, water)Association amenities include a fitness center and a poolAssociation fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space83 assigned parking spaces in the community
• Utilities: Electricity connectedWater included in association maintenanceSewer included in association maintenance
• Home design: Residential condominiumOne-story building (unit located in Building 2, unit 224)Architectural style: Other
• Construction: Built in 1980Brick constructionFlat roofPoured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: BalconyLevel lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eat-in areaDining area adjacent to the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms totalPrimary bedroom on the second floorAll bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on the second floorFull bathrooms located on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms7 closetsNo basementEat-in kitchenDining area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the second floor

HOA detail $415/mo · $4,980/yr

• Likely covers: cable

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $189,999 Active
2. 2022-05-09
   soldstatus $135,000 115-char remark
3. 2022-03-18
   listed $135,000 115-char remark
4. 2008-08-08
   soldstatus $97,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   FAST POSSESSION!!! Bldg. 2, Unit #320, 3rd Floor unit w/south-east view, carport #96 near back door, enjoy the conveniences & easy living, updated appliances, parquet flooring, crown molding, nice bright kitchen, washer & dryer in laundry room, cable TV included in maint. fee. Seller furnishing a 1-Year 2-10 Home Warranty.

5. 2008-06-18
   listed $98,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   FAST POSSESSION!!! Bldg. 2, Unit #320, 3rd Floor unit w/south-east view, carport #96 near back door, enjoy the conveniences & easy living, updated appliances, parquet flooring, crown molding, nice bright kitchen, washer & dryer in laundry room, cable TV included in maint. fee. Seller furnishing a 1-Year 2-10 Home Warranty.

6. 2005-11-01
   historical
7. 2005-07-08
   listed $103,000
8. 2005-05-12
   soldstatus $103,000
9. 2005-04-06
   listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$8,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,949
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,425–$65,565 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including exterior paint and roof inspection. Upgrades to the exterior and landscaping can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior paint — Some discoloration visible
• Moderate Roof inspection — May need inspection for potential issues

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal ↑
• Resale Roof inspection and repair — Aesthetic and structural concerns ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvement — Well-maintained landscaping attracts tenants ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Klondike Lane Elementary F KY #572/676 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Ramsey Middle F KY #200/217 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Seneca High F KY #228/254 Nat'l #15,755/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 823,112 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 35,078
• Household income: $78,434
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -297.08%
• Current HPI: 226.4036
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of the Casa Granada subdivisionPets allowed per association restrictionsBuilding has 5 floors and 224 condominium units
• HOA & community: Condo association (monthly maintenance includes cable TV, exterior maintenance, groundskeeping, internet, sewer, snow removal, trash, water)Association amenities include a fitness center and a poolAssociation fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space83 assigned parking spaces in the community
• Utilities: Electricity connectedWater included in association maintenanceSewer included in association maintenance
• Home design: Residential condominiumOne-story building (unit located in Building 2, unit 224)Architectural style: Other
• Construction: Built in 1980Brick constructionFlat roofPoured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: BalconyLevel lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eat-in areaDining area adjacent to the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms totalPrimary bedroom on the second floorAll bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on the second floorFull bathrooms located on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms7 closetsNo basementEat-in kitchenDining area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the second floor

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2008-08-08 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-06-18 Listed $98,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-11-01 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2005-07-08 Listed $103,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-05-12 Sold (MLS) $103,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-04-06 Listed $105,000 Metro Search MLS