124 State Ave N

Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$88,500B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,204/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$464
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $332/mo
• Annual: $3,983/yr
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.07%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $24,780

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $612 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.5% in Thief River Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.