124 State Ave N · Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$88,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1925 6,969 sqft lot $92/sqft · 48% below area Est $169k · 48% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to simple living in a great location! This home sits on an inviting corner lot just minutes from local amenities, making everyday errands and outings quick and convenient. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make the space your own. The unfinished basement offers excellent storage! Outside, the detached single-stall garage provides convenient parking and extra room for tools or hobbies. The corner lot adds curb appeal and additional yard space to enjoy!

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Corner lot
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• DETACHED SINGLE-STALL GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.5% in Thief River Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $612 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,190 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.07%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,812
• List price: $88,500
• Delta: -47.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $6,822
• Equity at exit: $13,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $33,255
• Equity at exit: $7,652

Cash invested: $24,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56701

• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$464
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $88,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,125
• Closing costs: $2,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 1st St W Thief River Falls, MN	1.0	1.0	520	$945	$1.82	43d	3	0.69mi
231 Tindolph Ave N Thief River Falls, MN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	43d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent - Inspection 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Welcome to simple living in a great location! This home sits on an inviting corner lot just minutes from local amenities, making everyday errands and outings quick and convenient. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make the space your own. The unfinished basement offers excellent storage! Outside, the detached single-stall garage provides convenient parking and extra room for tools or hobbies. The corner lot adds curb appeal and additional yard space to enjoy!

2. 2026-05-05
   status Active 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Welcome to simple living in a great location! This home sits on an inviting corner lot just minutes from local amenities, making everyday errands and outings quick and convenient. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make the space your own. The unfinished basement offers excellent storage! Outside, the detached single-stall garage provides convenient parking and extra room for tools or hobbies. The corner lot adds curb appeal and additional yard space to enjoy!

3. 2026-04-28
   historical Contingent - Inspection 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Welcome to simple living in a great location! This home sits on an inviting corner lot just minutes from local amenities, making everyday errands and outings quick and convenient. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make the space your own. The unfinished basement offers excellent storage! Outside, the detached single-stall garage provides convenient parking and extra room for tools or hobbies. The corner lot adds curb appeal and additional yard space to enjoy!

4. 2026-03-30
   price $88,500 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Welcome to simple living in a great location! This home sits on an inviting corner lot just minutes from local amenities, making everyday errands and outings quick and convenient. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make the space your own. The unfinished basement offers excellent storage! Outside, the detached single-stall garage provides convenient parking and extra room for tools or hobbies. The corner lot adds curb appeal and additional yard space to enjoy!

5. 2026-03-10
   listed $99,900 Active 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   Welcome to simple living in a great location! This home sits on an inviting corner lot just minutes from local amenities, making everyday errands and outings quick and convenient. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of potential to make the space your own. The unfinished basement offers excellent storage! Outside, the detached single-stall garage provides convenient parking and extra room for tools or hobbies. The corner lot adds curb appeal and additional yard space to enjoy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$2,575
• Taxable income: $2,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$658
• After-tax cash flow: $3,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thief River Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 2738850
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,239
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4547
• State rank: #201 of 301 in MN

Livability — Thief River Falls

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #4606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thief River Falls, MN
• City population: 12,814
• Population (ZIP): 12,814

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,800 people
• By 2030: 15,030 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 15,402 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 15,601 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 15,659 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 14,231 · -3.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 34% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.1% · R 64.6% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+27.0 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.53%
• Current HPI: 136.4729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $88,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,424 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.