2848 Lawrence 276

Lynn, AR 72458

$159,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-280/mo
• Annual: $-3,362/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#397 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hillcrest School District (rural): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 67% / reading 47%, grade C+, #49 of 454 statewide, top 12%, 253 students, 81% FRL); Hillcrest High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 181 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 55% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?