2848 Lawrence 276 · Lynn, AR 72458

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 180 Days on market

Built 1977 1.00 ac lot $123/sqft · 80% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just off Highway 25 near Lynn, A cozy ranch style home on one acre sits waiting for you! This property has an inviting open floor plan with two bedrooms and two bathrooms. A large kitchen perfect for entertaining and large family gatherings. All major appliances stay with the property including the microwave! To add to the charm of this property it features a bonus room that works perfectly as an office or changing room with a large walk in closet, the property has a garage that will accommodate two vehicles. Enjoy country life sitting on the front porch sipping sweet tea and taking in nature as you relax into your new home!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Front porch
• Bonus room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#397 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hillcrest School District (rural): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 67% / reading 47%, grade C+, #49 of 454 statewide, top 12%, 253 students, 81% FRL); Hillcrest High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 181 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 55% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $104,417 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $783,844
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -79.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,436
• Equity at exit: $71,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $30,163
• Equity at exit: $110,803

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72458

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $119,363

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-225	+0% $-280	+5% $-335	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-321	+0% $-280	+5% $-239	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-239	base $-280	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 164 DOM
12. 2025-12-15
    listed $159,900 New Listing 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Just off Highway 25 near Lynn, A cozy ranch style home on one acre sits waiting for you! This property has an inviting open floor plan with two bedrooms and two bathrooms. A large kitchen perfect for entertaining and large family gatherings. All major appliances stay with the property including the microwave! To add to the charm of this property it features a bonus room that works perfectly as an office or changing room with a large walk in closet, the property has a garage that will accommodate two vehicles. Enjoy country life sitting on the front porch sipping sweet tea and taking in nature as you relax into your new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$6,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillcrest School District
• NCES district ID: 0500071
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,660
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4112
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lynn

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #23066

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 619

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $159,900 CARMLS