118 Lemon St

Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$82,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $710/mo
• Annual: $8,518/yr
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.87%
• DSCR: 2.64
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $23,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $82k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.