118 Lemon St · Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$82,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1994 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home on over an acre of land. Property is shaded & has nice oak trees. Home features bay window in master bedroom, inside utility, dishwasher, & large enclosed back porch.

Key facts

• Two mobile homes
• Two storage sheds
• Spacious porch

Tags

• TWO MOBILE HOMES
• SPACIOUS PORCH
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.14 acres (1 to less than 2 acres); Zoned AG
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property; Faces west; One story; Entry on crawlspace
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $82k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.87%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,980
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Lemon St	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	930 (-1%)	1mo	$60,000	$65	92
161 Hall Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-2%)	2mo	$194,500	$210	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $31,868
• Equity at exit: $12,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $86,080
• Equity at exit: $7,133

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32666

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,500 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,500 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,500 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,500 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $82,500 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,500 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,500 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,500 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    price $82,500
15. 2026-03-08
    price $94,500
16. 2026-01-15
    status Active
17. 2026-01-15
    price $100,000
18. 2026-01-14
    historical
19. 2026-01-10
    historical
20. 2026-01-10
    listed $100,000 Active
21. 2025-11-15
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2015-09-23
    soldstatus $22,600 Sold 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home on over an acre of land. Property is shaded & has nice oak trees. Home features bay window in master bedroom, inside utility, dishwasher, & large enclosed back porch.

23. 2015-08-26
    status Pending 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home on over an acre of land. Property is shaded & has nice oak trees. Home features bay window in master bedroom, inside utility, dishwasher, & large enclosed back porch.

24. 2015-08-24
    historical Active - Contingent 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home on over an acre of land. Property is shaded & has nice oak trees. Home features bay window in master bedroom, inside utility, dishwasher, & large enclosed back porch.

25. 2015-07-09
    listed $24,800 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home on over an acre of land. Property is shaded & has nice oak trees. Home features bay window in master bedroom, inside utility, dishwasher, & large enclosed back porch.

26. 2007-04-04
    soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $7,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $6,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.77%
• Current HPI: 314.0055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $94,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-23 Sold (MLS) $22,600 realMLS
• 2015-08-26 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-08-24 Contingent — realMLS
• 2015-07-09 Listed $24,800 realMLS
• 2007-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,323 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.