318 W Main St

Braceville, IL 60407

$159,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-359/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-359/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.2% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#814 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Gardner S Wilmington Twp Hsd 73 (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #567 of 919 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Braceville Elem School (math 12% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,673 of 2,056 statewide, top 84%, 122 students, 0% FRL); Gardner-South Wilmington Twp H S (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 147 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 84 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grundy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.