318 W Main St · Braceville, IL 60407

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1960 0.52 ac lot Est $236k · 32% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Adorable corner lot 3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch home sitting on oversized 150x150 lot. Traditional layout with living room, kitchen, bedrooms and laundry room. BONUS: 4 car garage, 2 car attached and 2 car detached garage is perfect for the car enthusiast/mechanic. Large kitchen has 32" cabinets/gooseneck faucet and laminate flooring. Boiler heat and wall ac units.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• 4 car garage
• Large kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OVERSIZED LOT
• 4 CAR GARAGE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GOOSENECK FAUCET
• LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached garage space (4 garage spaces total, 4 parking total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Home built before 1978
• Exterior features: Half-acre to one-acre lot (approx. 0.50–0.99 acre); Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (19 x 14); Wood laminate flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (13 x 12); Bedroom on main level (12 x 11); Bedroom on main level (11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Wood laminate in kitchen; Other flooring in laundry
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (8 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-359/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#814 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Gardner S Wilmington Twp Hsd 73 (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #567 of 919 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Braceville Elem School (math 12% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,673 of 2,056 statewide, top 84%, 122 students, 0% FRL); Gardner-South Wilmington Twp H S (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 147 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 84 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grundy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,160
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
216 W Main St	0.08mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	6mo	$180,000	$119	78
109 N Van Horn St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-6%)	8mo	$199,999	$148	76
504 Settlers Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	14mo	$297,000	$204	71
133 E Gould St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-2%)	12mo	$253,000	$179	70
206 Gould St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-13%)	6mo	$175,000	$139	69
409 W Division St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+6%)	12mo	$250,000	$164	61
414 N Carey St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-2%)	20mo	$220,000	$157	48
602 W North St	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,240 (-14%)	16mo	$245,000	$198	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,897
• Equity at exit: $38,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,110
• Equity at exit: $40,376

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60407

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,324/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $154,622

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $15	+0% $-30	+5% $-75	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-92	+0% $-30	+5% $32	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $11	base $-30	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $159,900
3. 2026-04-06
   status Active
4. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-19
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,324 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,324 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$4,324
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gardner S Wilmington Twp Hsd 73
• NCES district ID: 1716260
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,618
• Composite: 26.19/100
• National rank: #12712
• State rank: #567 of 919 in IL

Livability — Braceville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #814
• US rank: #16042

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Braceville, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,723

Population outlook (Grundy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,716 people
• By 2030: 50,218 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 48,599 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 46,212 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 40,033 · -21.1%
• By 2100: 32,966 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grundy

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.6) · D 34.5% · R 64.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -29.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+23.6 2012: R+9.0 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Current HPI: 187.8
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $169,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,324 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.