15051 Bent Creek Rd

Amelia Court House, VA 23002

$95,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $828/mo
• Annual: $9,941/yr
• Cap rate: 18.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.02%
• DSCR: 2.91
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.