15051 Bent Creek Rd · Amelia Court House, VA 23002

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1900 1.56 ac lot $76/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 1 Bath Home in Amelia County. This home sits on 1. 560 Acres. it is need of a total remodel. The home is Sold AS/IS. The Power is not on. This home has tons of Potential. The Land Lays great.

Key facts

• 1.56 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.82%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,221
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -67.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $39,979
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $106,298
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23002

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   3 Bedroom 1 Bath Home in Amelia County. This home sits on 1. 560 Acres. it is need of a total remodel. The home is Sold AS/IS. The Power is not on. This home has tons of Potential. The Land Lays great.

2. 2026-03-20
   listed $95,000 Active 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   3 Bedroom 1 Bath Home in Amelia County. This home sits on 1. 560 Acres. it is need of a total remodel. The home is Sold AS/IS. The Power is not on. This home has tons of Potential. The Land Lays great.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$1,978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $9,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,284
• After-tax cash flow: $8,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amelia County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100180
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,185
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2468
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — Amelia Court House

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #12495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,657

Population outlook (Amelia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,928 people
• By 2030: 12,819 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 12,381 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 10,186 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 9,067 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amelia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.6% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.11%
• Current HPI: 251.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $95,000 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.