4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,377 sqft ·
Built 1920
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,264/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$419
Tax + insurance
−$82
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$685
Net cashflow
$2,077/mo
Annual
$24,927/yr
Cap rate
37.49%
Cash-on-cash
111.42%
DSCR
5.96
1% rule
4.09%
Cash to close
$22,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $18k; list at $80k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 37.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,264/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1820% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C254P6F4X2JGKT
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29