4444 E Avenue R #143

Palmdale, CA 93552

$169,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,306/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $1,444/mo
• Annual: $17,329/yr
• Cap rate: 16.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.62%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 1.96%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palmdale Learning Plaza (783 students, 80% FRL); Cactus Medical Health And Technology Magnet Academy (865 students, 92% FRL); William J. (Pete) Knight High (2,793 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $169k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,306/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 747% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.