4444 E Avenue R #143 · Palmdale, CA 93552

$169,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $168k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

Key facts

• Recreation room
• Ample parking
• Open floorplan

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• AMPLE PARKING
• ACCESS TO POOL
• RECREATION ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Agent measured; APN available
• Financial info: Park manager deposit listed as $3,000
• HOA & community: All-ages park; Contact manager for space rent and park deposit

Exterior

• Utilities: 220V electric
• Home design: Mobile home (manufactured in 1976); Fleetwood model; 60 ft. long × 24 ft. wide; Skirted; Space located in Grecian Isle park
• Construction: Manufactured home by Fleetwood; Skirted exterior; Roof reported (yes)
• Exterior features: Awning (2); Shed; Porch (1); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas oven
• Bedrooms: Mobile home with space number 143
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas oven; Central air; Natural gas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,306/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 747% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $169k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.62%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,480
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4444 E Avenue R #122	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-3%)	20mo	$240,000	$172	71
4444 E Avenue R Spc 120	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$157,000	$117	65
37311 E 47th St #124	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$155,000	$108	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $64,640
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $174,923
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93552

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $1,444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,561	-5% $1,502	+0% $1,444	+5% $1,386	+10% $1,327
Rent	-10% $1,183	-5% $1,313	+0% $1,444	+5% $1,575	+10% $1,705
Rate	-1.0pp $1,529	-0.5pp $1,487	base $1,444	+0.5pp $1,400	+1.0pp $1,356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4636 Blue Ridge Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1526	$3,000	$1.97	25d	1	0.29mi
4206 East Avenue Q-14 Unit Q14 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,850	$2.48	0d	1	0.34mi
37526 Rose St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1361	$3,150	$2.31	0d	1	0.52mi
37333 Scranton Ct Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,850	$1.62	25d	1	0.78mi
5327 Meredith Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	0d	1	0.95mi
37734 Tackstem St Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	0d	1	0.97mi
3559 E Avenue R14 Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,895	$1.95	0d	1	1.14mi
37347 Waterman Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,350	$2.42	0d	1	1.16mi
37707 57th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,700	$1.86	0d	1	1.27mi
37210 Sabal Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1198	$2,395	$2.00	0d	1	1.29mi
38532 33rd St E Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1157	$2,646	$2.29	0d	1	1.36mi
37835 58th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,800	$2.27	0d	1	1.38mi
37147 Alder St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,900	$1.69	0d	1	1.43mi
38527 Pond Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	0d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $169,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    status Active
18. 2026-04-14
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-03
    price $179,000
20. 2026-03-23
    listed $189,000 Active
21. 2025-11-07
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

22. 2025-11-07
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed Sale 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

23. 2025-10-25
    price $70,000 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

24. 2025-10-24
    status Pending Sale 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

25. 2025-10-24
    price $70,000 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

26. 2025-10-24
    status Pending 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

27. 2025-10-17
    price $99,000 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

28. 2025-10-17
    price $99,000 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

29. 2025-09-29
    listed $115,000 Active 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

30. 2025-09-27
    listed $115,000 Active 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Located in the Grecian Isles Mobile Home Park in California City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're looking for a project to flip, a rental renovation, or a chance to customize a home from the ground up, this property presents incredible potential at an affordable price point. Please note: This is a CASH-ONLY sale due to the current condition of the property. The home is not currently habitable and will require a full renovation before occupancy. Buyer to verify all conditions, repairs needed, and park approval. Grecian Isles is a well-established community and offers close proximity to local amenities, making this a great long-term investment once updated. Priced to sell and full of possibility—bring your contractor and your vision!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,174
• − Management: −$3,174
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $15,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,736
• After-tax cash flow: $13,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,639
• Household income: $85,954
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 21% Black 13% White 11% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.00%
• Current HPI: 394.1607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+55.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $179,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $189,000 AVMLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (MLS) $60,000 AVMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $70,000 AVMLS
• 2025-10-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Pending — AVMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $99,000 AVMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $115,000 AVMLS