503 Bowie St

Lone Star, TX 75668

$122,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 754 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $784/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $-204/mo
• Annual: $-2,444/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $34,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (35.7% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#786 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Daingerfield-Lone Star ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #679 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morris County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $122k implies a 559% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?