407 W Baxter

Seguin, TX 78155

$90,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 302 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $455/mo
• Annual: $5,458/yr
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.66%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Patlan El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 443 students, 86% FRL); Jim Barnes Middle (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 797 students, 75% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom shower curtain — Signs of wear
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and paint chipping
• Minor: Living room carpet — Worn appearance
• Minor: Interior wall paint — Faded in some areas
• Minor: Windows — May need cleaning