407 W Baxter · Seguin, TX 78155

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1982 6,403 sqft lot $123/sqft · 43% below area Est $166k · 43% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special! Small 3-Bedrooms, 1 bath home in Seguin, Tx with a spacious back yard, ready as a fixer-upper or rental. Perfect project for investors looking to add value. Priced to sell with tons of potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near downtown Seguin, minutes from Hwy 123 and I-10 access. Just minutes from Seguin ISD schools (Vogel, Barnes and Seguin High), parks and local restaurants. Don't miss this affordable investment opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Near downtown seguin
• Spacious back yard
• Minutes from hwy 123

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACK YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR DOWNTOWN SEGUIN
• MINUTES FROM HWY 123
• MINUTES FROM I-10 ACCESS
• NEAR PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.91%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,551
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -42.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2014 Louise St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	754 (-3%)	16mo	$174,565	$232	71
413 Benbo St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-10%)	14mo	$169,000	$241	63
2210 Louise St	0.22mi	3/2.0	884 (+14%)	12mo	$201,999	$229	52
1619 N Bowie St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	680 (-12%)	21mo	$162,000	$238	45
1015 W New Braunfels St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-1%)	18mo	$170,000	$221	45
735 Beale	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+12%)	14mo	$145,000	$168	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $12,793
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $43,773
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,490/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $838

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,464	$1.42	4d	1	0.13mi
1601 Hays St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,275	$1.17	4d	1	0.43mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Seguin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,278	$1.34	19d	5	0.50mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 2111 Seguin, TX	2.0	2.0	847	$1,125	$1.33	43d	1	0.50mi
2551 N Guadalupe St Unit 4106 Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,300	$1.20	43d	1	0.50mi
527 Elley St Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,325	$1.22	23d	1	0.64mi
607 E Martindale St Unit B Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	17d	1	0.65mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	14d	1	0.66mi
201 E Kingsbury St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$1,095	$1.28	23d	1	0.66mi
519 E Pine St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,150	$1.71	2d	1	0.71mi
508 Pitts St Seguin, TX	3.0	1.0	973	$1,275	$1.31	12d	1	0.78mi
906 San Antonio Ave Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,100	$1.08	43d	1	0.94mi
809 Leissner St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,175	$1.15	23d	1	0.98mi
968 E Cedar St Unit 1 Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$995	$1.16	43d	1	1.18mi
404 W Walnut St Seguin, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$1,550	$1.56	43d	1	1.23mi
1168 Sycamore St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	1d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-03-25
    price $95,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Investor Special! Small 3-Bedrooms, 1 bath home in Seguin, Tx with a spacious back yard, ready as a fixer-upper or rental. Perfect project for investors looking to add value. Priced to sell with tons of potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near downtown Seguin, minutes from Hwy 123 and I-10 access. Just minutes from Seguin ISD schools (Vogel, Barnes and Seguin High), parks and local restaurants. Don't miss this affordable investment opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own!

14. 2025-11-23
    price $100,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Investor Special! Small 3-Bedrooms, 1 bath home in Seguin, Tx with a spacious back yard, ready as a fixer-upper or rental. Perfect project for investors looking to add value. Priced to sell with tons of potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near downtown Seguin, minutes from Hwy 123 and I-10 access. Just minutes from Seguin ISD schools (Vogel, Barnes and Seguin High), parks and local restaurants. Don't miss this affordable investment opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own!

15. 2025-10-09
    listed $105,000 New 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Investor Special! Small 3-Bedrooms, 1 bath home in Seguin, Tx with a spacious back yard, ready as a fixer-upper or rental. Perfect project for investors looking to add value. Priced to sell with tons of potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located near downtown Seguin, minutes from Hwy 123 and I-10 access. Just minutes from Seguin ISD schools (Vogel, Barnes and Seguin High), parks and local restaurants. Don't miss this affordable investment opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own!

16. 2008-02-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,490 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,490
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $4,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $95,000 LERA
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $100,000 LERA
• 2025-10-09 Listed $105,000 LERA
• 2008-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,490 · -28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.