Thoreau Plan

Maineville, OH 45039

$443,995D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,067 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$859
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $-648/mo
• Annual: $-7,777/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $144,237

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $444k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $369k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 59d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Maineville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.