Thoreau Plan

Maineville, OH 45039

$443,995C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,067 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 199 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,308/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,729
• Tax + insurance: −$867
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $-194/mo
• Annual: $-2,322/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $145,729

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $444k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $431k (3.0% below list).
• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $391k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Maineville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,308/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.