Thoreau Plan · Maineville, OH 45039

$440,495

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Thoreau is our largest Smart Series home! This 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a loft, and multiple exterior elevations. Schedule your personal tour today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $436,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Home design: New construction plan home; Address: Thoreau Plan, Maineville, OH 45039
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3067

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: Thoreau

🏗️ New construction. The $440,495 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $508,248.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $369k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Maineville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $368,632 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $508,248
• List price: $440,495
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7841 Horizon Bend Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5	3,157 (+3%)	0mo	$510,234	$162	86
1479 Englewood Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5	3,205 (+4%)	2mo	$540,000	$168	81
1527 Englewood Ct	0.16mi	4/3.5	3,319 (+8%)	8mo	$530,000	$160	68
1448 Soaring Way	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,746 (-10%)	1mo	$515,000	$188	68
1352 Eagle Blvd	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,820 (-8%)	9mo	$430,000	$152	67
1322 Eagle Blvd	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,820 (-8%)	11mo	$498,000	$177	63
1236 Sinclair Dr	0.51mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,132 (+2%)	0mo	$525,000	$168	60
7606 Harwood Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,623 (-14%)	2mo	$460,000	$175	51
1201 Sinclair Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	3,489 (+14%)	10mo	$539,000	$154	48
1509 Wexler Ct	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,666 (-13%)	10mo	$565,910	$212	42
1123 Elk Run	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,426 (+12%)	9mo	$430,000	$126	40
935 Pine Needle Pl	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,634 (-14%)	7mo	$409,000	$155	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $255,758
• Equity at exit: $457,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $824,809
• Equity at exit: $987,414

Cash invested: $142,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,665
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$635 /mo · $7,624/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,446

Max offer price $421,399

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,062
• Closing costs: $15,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7814 Wilderness Way Maineville, OH	4.0	2.0	2140	$2,671	$1.25	43d	1	0.72mi
1256 Carrington Pl Maineville, OH	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,521	$0.84	23d	1	0.84mi
6976 Briarcliff Ct Maineville, OH	4.0	3.0	2475	$3,595	$1.45	16d	1	1.05mi
6965 Quellin Blvd Maineville, OH	5.0	2.5	3640	$7,500	$2.06	43d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,495 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,495 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,495 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,495 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,495 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,495 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $440,495 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $436,995 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $436,995 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $436,995 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $436,995 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $436,995 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-04-23
    listed $436,995 Active 172-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,470
• − Property taxes: −$7,624
• − Insurance: −$2,541
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,539
• − Management: −$3,539
• − Depreciation: −$14,785
• Taxable loss: −$16,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story Smart Series home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — Maineville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maineville, OH
• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B