149 Lake St

Webster, MA 01570

$299,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $287/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($287/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#183 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Webster (suburban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #286 of 302 in MA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.