149 Lake St · Webster, MA 01570

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1950 8,825 sqft lot $189/sqft · 23% below area Est $388k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for the right buyer. Being offered through an Estate Sale in As Is condition, this home is currently zoned as a two family, but would make a lovely single family residence as well - or could be used as a single family with a 2nd floor ADU. A diamond in the rough, solidly built but needing cosmetics/renovations throughout, this property offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, a full unfinished basement, space for 5-6 cars for off street parking and a storage shed on the property as well. Connected to town water, sewer and gas allows flexibility in renovating to almost any plans you can think of.

Key facts

• 2nd floor adu
• Off street parking
• Storage shed

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE
• 2ND FLOOR ADU
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• OFF STREET PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• TOWN WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($287/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#183 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Webster (suburban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #286 of 302 in MA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,054 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,491
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -23.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Everett Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,581 (+0%)	9mo	$378,000	$239	81
10 Goddard St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,530 (-3%)	17mo	$290,000	$190	51
11 Maynard Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,536 (-3%)	18mo	$400,000	$260	49
39 Lake St	0.66mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+10%)	4mo	$425,000	$246	45
31 Emerald Ave	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,810 (+15%)	15mo	$380,000	$210	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $164,293
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $482,473
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01570

• Home prices YoY: 20.5%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,349/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,390

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
52 Point Pleasant Rd Unit 52 Webster, MA	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,895	$1.98	44d	1	1.04mi
4 Laprise Ct Unit 2 Dudley, MA	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,800	$1.68	21d	1	1.29mi
23 Brandon Rd Unit 3 Dudley, MA	3.0	1.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	44d	1	1.39mi
11 1st Ave Unit 1STFL Dudley, MA	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	19d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $299,000 New 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Great opportunity for the right buyer. Being offered through an Estate Sale in As Is condition, this home is currently zoned as a two family, but would make a lovely single family residence as well. A diamond in the rough, solidly built but needing cosmetics/renovations throughout, this property offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, a full unfinished basement, space for 5-6 cars for off street parking and a storage shed on the property as well. Connected to town water, sewer and gas allows flexibility in renovating to almost any plans you can think of.

17. 2026-04-06
    listed $299,000 New 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Great opportunity for the right buyer. Being offered through an Estate Sale in As Is condition, this home is currently zoned as a two family, but would make a lovely single family residence as well. A diamond in the rough, solidly built but needing cosmetics/renovations throughout, this property offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, a full unfinished basement, space for 5-6 cars for off street parking and a storage shed on the property as well. Connected to town water, sewer and gas allows flexibility in renovating to almost any plans you can think of.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,349 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,013 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,349
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,174
• After-tax cash flow: $1,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster
• NCES district ID: 2512240
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,939
• Composite: 19.1/100
• National rank: #8837
• State rank: #286 of 302 in MA

Livability — Webster

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #13047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Webster, MA
• County: Worcester County · 487,911 people
• City population: 17,748
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• Population (ZIP): 17,748
• Household income: $72,895
• Rent vs Own: 40.2% rent · 59.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 690.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 850,858 people
• By 2030: 860,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 869,902 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 869,110 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 870,120 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 829,703 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 12% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: D (+10.0) · D 53.9% · R 43.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.0 2020: D+17.8 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 101.75%
• Current HPI: 598.587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Worcester, MA-CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $299,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-04-06 Listed $299,000 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,349 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.