1609 15th Ave SW

Olympia, WA 98502

$545,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,852 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$671
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-1,582/mo
• Annual: $-18,986/yr
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.44%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (51.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (54.3% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($496k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (54.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $545k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?