1609 15th Ave SW · Olympia, WA 98502

$545,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1999 6,050 sqft lot $294/sqft · at area comps Est $571k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Westside 4BR/2.5 Bath 2-Story Home w/ Covered Front Porch - Move-In Ready - $20,000+ Upgrades - New Furnace, Interior Doors, Garbage Disposal & Outdoor Water Spigots. New Paint & Carpet Replaced Throughout. Smart Thermostat & Koi Pond/Fountain w/ Fish. Cleaned/Pressure Washed Deck, Patio & Driveway. Bright Kitchen w/ White Cabinets, Granite Countertops, SS Appliances, Large Island w/ Eating Space & Pantry. Breakfast Area w/ Slider to Large Deck, Garden Space & Fully Fenced Backyard. Great Room with Cozy Gas Fireplace and Access to Main Level Laundry Room & 2-Car Garage w/ Workbench. Formal Dining Room. Primary Bedroom on Upper-Level w/ Private Bathr

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Koi pond
• New furnace

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NEW FURNACE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• KOI POND
• CLEANED PRESSURE WASHED DECK
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $545k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (51.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (54.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (54.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($496k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $545k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $248,979 (54.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.44%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 18.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $571,353
• List price: $545,000
• Delta: -4.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1721 15th Ave SW	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-0%)	17mo	$570,000	$308	74
1436 12th Ave SW	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,761 (-5%)	0mo	$620,000	$352	74
1718 Fern St SW	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (+2%)	6mo	$524,900	$279	74
922 Plymouth St SW	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,926 (+4%)	9mo	$520,000	$270	69
1709 Fern St SW	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,938 (+5%)	6mo	$499,000	$257	68
1606 11th Ave SW	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	2mo	$489,000	$291	64
1526 Division St SW	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-7%)	17mo	$488,500	$283	61
1501 Division St SW	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-7%)	18mo	$525,000	$304	59
2017 18th Ave SW	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,120 (+14%)	14mo	$600,000	$283	51
717 Cushing St SW	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-11%)	9mo	$605,000	$367	43
1322 11th Ct SW	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	19mo	$575,000	$359	41
1003 6th Ave SW	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,728 (-7%)	15mo	$633,000	$366	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $196,360
• Equity at exit: $490,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $658,120
• Equity at exit: $1,058,815

Cash invested: $152,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,327/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-1,582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,492

Max offer price $265,510

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,274	-5% $-1,428	+0% $-1,582	+5% $-1,736	+10% $-1,891
Rent	-10% $-1,779	-5% $-1,680	+0% $-1,582	+5% $-1,484	+10% $-1,385
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,308	-0.5pp $-1,444	base $-1,582	+0.5pp $-1,723	+1.0pp $-1,867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,250
• Closing costs: $16,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1653 Starlight Ln SW Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1559	$2,800	$1.80	14d	2	1.11mi
512 N 4th Ave SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,095	$1.70	44d	1	1.20mi
407 N 5th Ave SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.22mi
407 N 5th Ave SW Unit A Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	1.22mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	44d	1	1.23mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	44d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgas

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $545,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $545,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $545,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $545,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $545,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $545,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $560,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $560,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $560,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $560,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $560,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $560,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $560,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $560,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $560,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $560,000
17. 2026-02-19
    listed $580,000 Active
18. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus $345,000 Sold
19. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus $345,000
20. 2018-05-09
    status Pending
21. 2018-05-04
    listed $345,000 Active
22. 2015-11-10
    soldstatus $218,000 Sold
23. 2015-09-26
    status Pending
24. 2015-09-02
    listed $220,000 Active
25. 2009-10-01
    soldstatus $259,950 Sold
26. 2009-09-30
    soldstatus $259,950
27. 2009-08-17
    status Pending Inspection
28. 2009-07-27
    price $259,950
29. 2009-06-22
    price $269,950
30. 2009-06-05
    price $274,950
31. 2009-05-13
    listed $279,950
32. 1999-12-10
    soldstatus $160,000
33. 1999-12-10
    soldstatus $160,000
34. 1999-03-15
    listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,327 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,341 · $445/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,528
• − Property taxes: −$5,327
• − Insurance: −$2,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$15,855
• Taxable loss: −$29,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+239.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $560,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $580,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-08 Sold (MLS) $345,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-04 Listed $345,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-10 Sold (MLS) $218,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-02 Listed $220,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-01 Sold (MLS) $259,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $259,950 Public Records
• 2009-08-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-27 Price Changed $259,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-22 Price Changed $269,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-05 Price Changed $274,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-13 Listed $279,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-10 Sold (MLS) $160,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-15 Listed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,327 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.