12523 NW 7th Pl

Newberry, FL 32669

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,310/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (8.8% below list).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meadowbrook Elementary School (math 72% / reading 70%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Fort Clarke Middle School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 961 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 11007% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.