12523 NW 7th Pl · Newberry, FL 32669

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $250/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 3 bed/2.5 bath townhome in Tara West End, built in 2021 and move-in ready with fresh interior paint and new carpet! The first floor features an open kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a large island that opens to the living and dining area, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. Large sliding doors lead to a screened lanai. Upstairs, you’ll find the owner’s suite with a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower. There are also two guest bedrooms, a full bath, and the laundry room. Additional features include a one-car garage, driveway parking, and nearby guest parking. Community amenities include access to a pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Seller offering $2,500 toward buyer closing costs. Convenient location across from Tioga Town Center with quick access to I-75, UF, Santa Fe, HCA North Florida Hospital, UF Health, and the VA!

Key facts

• Screened lanai
• Large island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• SCREENED LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meadowbrook Elementary School (math 72% / reading 70%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 848 students, 34% FRL); Fort Clarke Middle School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 961 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 11007% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,985
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,940
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,943/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $230,619

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-38	+0% $-109	+5% $-180	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-199	+0% $-109	+5% $-19	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-46	base $-109	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $249,900 Pending 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $2,250
13. 2026-05-09
    price $249,900 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 3 bed/2.5 bath townhome in Tara West End, built in 2021 and move-in ready with fresh interior paint and new carpet! The first floor features an open kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a large island that opens to the living and dining area, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. Large sliding doors lead to a screened lanai. Upstairs, you’ll find the owner’s suite with a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower. There are also two guest bedrooms, a full bath, and the laundry room. Additional features include a one-car garage, driveway parking, and nearby guest parking. Community amenities include access to a pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Seller offering $2,500 toward buyer closing costs. Convenient location across from Tioga Town Center with quick access to I-75, UF, Santa Fe, HCA North Florida Hospital, UF Health, and the VA!

14. 2026-04-03
    price $259,500 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 3 bed/2.5 bath townhome in Tara West End, built in 2021 and move-in ready with fresh interior paint and new carpet! The first floor features an open kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a large island that opens to the living and dining area, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. Large sliding doors lead to a screened lanai. Upstairs, you’ll find the owner’s suite with a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower. There are also two guest bedrooms, a full bath, and the laundry room. Additional features include a one-car garage, driveway parking, and nearby guest parking. Community amenities include access to a pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Seller offering $2,500 toward buyer closing costs. Convenient location across from Tioga Town Center with quick access to I-75, UF, Santa Fe, HCA North Florida Hospital, UF Health, and the VA!

15. 2025-12-20
    price $262,500 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 3 bed/2.5 bath townhome in Tara West End, built in 2021 and move-in ready with fresh interior paint and new carpet! The first floor features an open kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a large island that opens to the living and dining area, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. Large sliding doors lead to a screened lanai. Upstairs, you’ll find the owner’s suite with a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower. There are also two guest bedrooms, a full bath, and the laundry room. Additional features include a one-car garage, driveway parking, and nearby guest parking. Community amenities include access to a pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Seller offering $2,500 toward buyer closing costs. Convenient location across from Tioga Town Center with quick access to I-75, UF, Santa Fe, HCA North Florida Hospital, UF Health, and the VA!

16. 2025-11-10
    price $265,000 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 3 bed/2.5 bath townhome in Tara West End, built in 2021 and move-in ready with fresh interior paint and new carpet! The first floor features an open kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a large island that opens to the living and dining area, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. Large sliding doors lead to a screened lanai. Upstairs, you’ll find the owner’s suite with a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower. There are also two guest bedrooms, a full bath, and the laundry room. Additional features include a one-car garage, driveway parking, and nearby guest parking. Community amenities include access to a pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Seller offering $2,500 toward buyer closing costs. Convenient location across from Tioga Town Center with quick access to I-75, UF, Santa Fe, HCA North Florida Hospital, UF Health, and the VA!

17. 2025-09-27
    listed $270,000 Active 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. 3 bed/2.5 bath townhome in Tara West End, built in 2021 and move-in ready with fresh interior paint and new carpet! The first floor features an open kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a large island that opens to the living and dining area, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. Large sliding doors lead to a screened lanai. Upstairs, you’ll find the owner’s suite with a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a walk-in shower. There are also two guest bedrooms, a full bath, and the laundry room. Additional features include a one-car garage, driveway parking, and nearby guest parking. Community amenities include access to a pool, tennis courts, and walking trails. Seller offering $2,500 toward buyer closing costs. Convenient location across from Tioga Town Center with quick access to I-75, UF, Santa Fe, HCA North Florida Hospital, UF Health, and the VA!

18. 2021-03-12
    historical
19. 2020-10-02
    historical
20. 2020-10-02
    listed $229,900
21. 2020-09-22
    listed $219,900
22. 2020-09-22
    historical
23. 2020-08-16
    listed $229,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,943 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,943 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,943
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,316
• After-tax cash flow: $6/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhome in Newberry, FL, features fresh paint, new carpet, and an open floor plan ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The exterior is well-maintained with good siding and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Increases resale value and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Increases resale value and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed for Rent $2,250 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $259,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $262,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-22 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-16 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+33.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,943 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.