111 N Alder St

Ocilla, GA 31774

$50,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built 1921 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,201/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $621/mo
• Annual: $7,451/yr
• Cap rate: 21.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.22%
• DSCR: 3.37
• 1% rule: 2.40%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#239 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Irwin County (rural): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #57 of 174 in GA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Irwin County Elementary School (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #411 of 1,228 statewide, top 34%, 753 students, 85% FRL); Irwin County Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 389 students, 67% FRL); Irwin County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 480 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Irwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Irwin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.