111 N Alder St · Ocilla, GA 31774

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1921 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,656 square feet of living space. Owned by the same family for the past 40 years, this property is ready for its next chapter. Situated on a lot with a large backyard, the outdoor space offers endless possibilities. Whether you're dreaming of a garden, workshop, play area, outdoor entertaining space, pool, additional storage buildings, or simply enjoying a spacious yard, there's plenty of room to bring your ideas to life. This home will require significant updates and repairs and is being sold strictly AS-IS, including all contents currently inside the home. For investors, flippers, or handy first-time homebuyers with constructio

Key facts

• Play area
• Garden
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• GARDEN
• WORKSHOP
• PLAY AREA
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built on foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Chain link and wood fencing

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Accessible entrance
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#239 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Irwin County (rural): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #57 of 174 in GA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Irwin County Elementary School (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #411 of 1,228 statewide, top 34%, 753 students, 85% FRL); Irwin County Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 389 students, 67% FRL); Irwin County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 480 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Irwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Irwin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.22%
• DSCR: 3.37
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,728
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 N Apple St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-4%)	8mo	$140,000	$88	77
207 N Ash St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,504 (-9%)	1mo	$78,000	$52	70
608 W Second St	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,482 (-10%)	23mo	$175,000	$118	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $31,449
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $78,335
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31774

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $649	-5% $635	+0% $621	+5% $607	+10% $593
Rent	-10% $526	-5% $573	+0% $621	+5% $668	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $634	base $621	+0.5pp $608	+1.0pp $595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $50,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,695
• After-tax cash flow: $5,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irwin County
• NCES district ID: 1302910
• Math proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,963
• Composite: 31.18/100
• National rank: #6047
• State rank: #57 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ocilla

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #13595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocilla, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,788

Population outlook (Irwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,644 people
• By 2030: 8,322 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 7,634 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 6,990 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 5,885 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 5,006 · -42.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 39% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Irwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.2) · D 22.7% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -36.8pp · 2024: -54.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.2 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+37.6 2008: R+36.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.44%
• Current HPI: 216.6609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $59,900 TBOR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $541 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.