3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
975 sqft ·
Built 1951
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,291/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$271
Net cashflow
$11/mo
Annual
$130/yr
Cap rate
6.39%
Cash-on-cash
0.33%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($130/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (7.7% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $129k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 93/100 on livability (#1 in IL, #17 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment C-.
Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lindsay School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 423 students, 0% FRL); Benjamin Franklin Middle School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #302 of 665 statewide, top 47%, 713 students, 0% FRL); Springfield Southeast High Sch (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 1,261 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $88k; list at $140k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-C4D1RR2CPYNG2F
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29