12149 W Highway 99

Red Bluff, CA 96080

$195,888C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,705/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $119/mo
• Annual: $1,426/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $54,849

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (13.0% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $170k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#698 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Red Bluff Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #418 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William M. Metteer Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 463 students, 88% FRL); Vista Preparatory Academy (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 549 students, 82% FRL); Red Bluff High (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 1,618 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Red Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.