133 Cherry Hill Cir

Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$349,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$161
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-681/mo
• Annual: $-8,166/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (36.6% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $349k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.