133 Cherry Hill Cir · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2005 0.70 ac lot $281/sqft · 66% above area Est $264k · 32% over $161/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath Bi level home in Fawn Lake Forest Estates. Sold as is where is. , Baths: 2+ Bath Lev 1,Modern, Beds: 2+ Bed 1st, SqFt Fin - Main: 1485.00, SqFt Fin - 3rd: 0.00, Tax Information: Available, SqFt Fin - 2nd: 0.00, Additional Info: onto Cherry Hill Circle. House on right.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Community amenities
• Expansive deck

Tags

• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Westcolang Road, turn into Fawn Lake’s main entrance on Forest Ridge Drive, left on Oak Hill Road, left onto Cherry Hill Lane, then left onto Cherry Hill Circle.
• HOA & community: Part of a homeowners association; Annual association fee (paid annually); One-time association fee; Monthly equivalent association fee approximately $160.92; Association includes security and snow removal; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, park, lake access, beach rights, fishing, dog park, game rooms, indoor pool, tennis and sport courts, basketball, shuffleboard, meeting and party rooms, parking/boat amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway (paved); Garage faces side
• Security: Community security (HOA)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Finished below-grade living area
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped grounds; Private and level lot; Few trees; Cleared areas; Fire pit; Playground; Garden; Deck; Has a view; Located on/near Fawn Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas range; Eat-in kitchen with island
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ductless heating; Ductless heat pump system; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage space; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Kitchen island; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; His and hers closets; Wood-burning fireplace in living room; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $349k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,301 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,555
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: 32.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Oak Hill Rd	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	75
107 Cherry Point Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,193 (-4%)	13mo	$489,000	$410	74
437 Westcolang Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-0%)	4mo	$253,000	$205	68
262 Fawn Lake Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+3%)	2mo	$510,000	$400	67
225 Cottonwood Drive Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-5%)	9mo	$210,000	$179	64
153 Deer Trail Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+13%)	10mo	$229,900	$164	61
810 Buckhorn Ct	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,357 (+9%)	15mo	$230,000	$169	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $146,776
• Equity at exit: $314,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $466,401
• Equity at exit: $678,030

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,506/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,074

Max offer price $228,783

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-483	-5% $-582	+0% $-681	+5% $-779	+10% $-878
Rent	-10% $-855	-5% $-768	+0% $-681	+5% $-593	+10% $-506
Rate	-1.0pp $-505	-0.5pp $-592	base $-681	+0.5pp $-771	+1.0pp $-863

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $349,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-05-05
   listed $359,000 Active 1564-char remark
7. 2012-12-19
   soldstatus $85,799 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath Bi level home in Fawn Lake Forest Estates. Sold as is where is. , Baths: 2+ Bath Lev 1,Modern, Beds: 2+ Bed 1st, SqFt Fin - Main: 1485.00, SqFt Fin - 3rd: 0.00, Tax Information: Available, SqFt Fin - 2nd: 0.00, Additional Info: onto Cherry Hill Circle. House on right.

8. 2005-10-24
   soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,510 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$3,506
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$14,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1103.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $349,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $359,000 PWMLS
• 2012-12-19 Sold (MLS) $85,799 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2005-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,506 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.