5043 Watson Dr

Flint, MI 48506

$135,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $172/mo
• Annual: $2,059/yr
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Kearsley Community School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #343 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weston Elementary School (424 students, 80% FRL); Armstrong Middle School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #337 of 493 statewide, top 69%, 651 students, 85% FRL); Kearsley High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 887 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $135k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 11.6% in Flint — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.