5043 Watson Dr · Genesee, MI 48506

$135,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 1952 0.31 ac lot Est $162k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

award winning kearsley schools, vinyl sided 3 bedroom ranch, 1 bath, large living room with fireplace and attached garage situated on a nice sized lot and a quiet, no-outlet street that's close to shopping, dining all in an area of more expensive homes. land contract terms available. home across street is for sale @ $75k. .. home next door sold for $65k. .. this is a great buy!

Key facts

• Fenced in
• Huge backyard
• Close to dining

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• FENCED IN
• QUIET NO-OUTLET STREET
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house; Approximately 1,200 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 13,286 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kearsley Community School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #343 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $135k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4413 Esta Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,190 (-1%)	3mo	$170,000	$143	73
5104 Esta Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	11mo	$50,100	$43	71
4034 Genesee Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	8mo	$160,000	$143	69
4435 Meadowbrook Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	3mo	$209,900	$183	68
4321 Esta Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+3%)	12mo	$182,500	$148	53
3247 Mills Acres St	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,262 (+5%)	5mo	$142,500	$113	51
3236 Lynne Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,281 (+7%)	9mo	$194,500	$152	49
4423 Crampton Cir	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	21mo	$162,000	$135	48
4424 Mollwood Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	12mo	$105,000	$101	47
3084 Egleston Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,151 (-4%)	16mo	$140,000	$122	40
5030 Knapp Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-14%)	24mo	$110,000	$107	38
5270 Richfield Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,293 (+8%)	21mo	$132,000	$102	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,964
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,464
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48506

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,356/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-02-21
    listed $135,000 Active
17. 2015-08-09
    historical
18. 2014-12-11
    listed $26,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    award winning kearsley schools, vinyl sided 3 bedroom ranch, 1 bath, large living room with fireplace and attached garage situated on a nice sized lot and a quiet, no-outlet street that's close to shopping, dining all in an area of more expensive homes. land contract terms available. home across street is for sale @ $75k. .. home next door sold for $65k. .. this is a great buy!

19. 2014-12-11
    listed $26,000

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    award winning kearsley schools, vinyl sided 3 bedroom ranch, 1 bath, large living room with fireplace and attached garage situated on a nice sized lot and a quiet, no-outlet street that's close to shopping, dining all in an area of more expensive homes. land contract terms available. home across street is for sale @ $75k. .. home next door sold for $65k. .. this is a great buy!

20. 2009-05-02
    soldstatus $56,000
21. 2009-05-02
    soldstatus $56,000
22. 2009-04-20
    historical
23. 2009-01-02
    listed $59,500
24. 2009-01-02
    listed $59,500
25. 2008-10-26
    historical
26. 2008-10-26
    historical
27. 2008-10-19
    listed $39,900
28. 2008-10-19
    listed $39,900
29. 2008-10-14
    soldstatus $26,000
30. 2008-10-13
    soldstatus $26,000
31. 2008-09-29
    listed $26,500
32. 2008-09-29
    listed $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,718 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,356
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $2,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kearsley Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2620070
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,066
• Composite: 26.99/100
• National rank: #7068
• State rank: #343 of 540 in MI

Livability — Genesee

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,712
• Household income: $47,929
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.31%
• Current HPI: 90.0494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+409.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $135,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2015-08-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-12-11 Listed $26,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-12-11 Listed $26,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-05-02 Sold (MLS) $56,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-05-02 Sold (MLS) $56,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-04-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-01-02 Listed $59,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-01-02 Listed $59,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-10-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-19 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-10-19 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-14 Sold (MLS) $26,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-13 Sold (MLS) $26,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-29 Listed $26,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-29 Listed $26,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,356 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.