Newberry II Plan

Avon Lake, OH 44012

$473,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,390 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 547 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,032
• Tax + insurance: −$964
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$917
• Net cashflow: $-547/mo
• Annual: $-6,563/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $161,905

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $474k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-547 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $437k (7.9% below list).
• It's been on market 547 days — a 12% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $417k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,366/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 290% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 547 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.