Newberry II Plan · Avon Lake, OH 44012

$473,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,390 sqft · SingleFamily · 547 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Spacious kitchen
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• EVERYDAY ENTRY
• PULTE PLANNING CENTER
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $473,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $578,233.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $474k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-547 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $437k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,366/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 290% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 547 days — a 12% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $417,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 547 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $578,233
• List price: $473,990
• Delta: -18.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Bar Hbr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,453 (+3%)	4mo	$607,000	$247	83
396 Creekside Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,442 (+2%)	4mo	$542,500	$222	68
648 Landerwood Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,355 (-2%)	2mo	$455,000	$193	65
598 Chancellor Cir	0.46mi	3/3.0	2,226 (-7%)	1mo	$560,000	$252	64
31766 Walker Rd	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-7%)	0mo	$558,000	$251	64
32068 Dorchester Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,204 (-8%)	3mo	$430,000	$195	62
588 S Port Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,662 (+11%)	3mo	$740,000	$278	62
611 Arborside Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,671 (+12%)	3mo	$470,000	$176	55
32041 Kossuth Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,152 (-10%)	3mo	$620,000	$288	54
643 Brownstone Cir	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,593 (+8%)	3mo	$505,000	$195	50
718 Wedgewood Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (-8%)	1mo	$508,000	$232	50
654 Brownstone Cir	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,729 (+14%)	2mo	$540,000	$198	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-128,465
• Equity at exit: $86,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-156,448
• Equity at exit: $49,995

Cash invested: $161,905 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44012

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,032
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$723 /mo · $8,673/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$917
• Net cashflow: $-547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,058

Max offer price $499,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-347	+0% $-547	+5% $-747	+10% $-946
Rent	-10% $-892	-5% $-719	+0% $-547	+5% $-374	+10% $-202
Rate	-1.0pp $-256	-0.5pp $-400	base $-547	+0.5pp $-697	+1.0pp $-849

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,558
• Closing costs: $17,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	2.5	2000	$4,100	$2.05	8d	1	1.29mi
384 Bradley Rd Bay Village, OH	3.0	3.0	2000	$4,100	$2.05	4d	1	1.29mi
32071 Lake Rd Unit 1496051P Avon Lake, OH	4.0	2.5	1603	$7,861	$4.90	8d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $473,990 Active 547 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $473,990 Active 544 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $473,990 Active 543 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $473,990 Active 542 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $473,990 Active 541 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $473,990 Active 539 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $473,990 Active 538 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $473,990 Active 535 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $473,990 Active 534 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $473,990 Active 533 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $473,990 Active 530 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $473,990 Active 529 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $473,990 Active 528 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $473,990 Active 527 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $473,990 Active 526 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $473,990 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

17. 2025-11-05
    price $468,990 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

18. 2025-10-04
    price $465,990 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

19. 2025-09-04
    price $462,990 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

20. 2025-05-03
    price $460,990 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

21. 2025-04-14
    price $458,990 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

22. 2024-12-22
    listed $450,990 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    The Newberry II open layout puts livability first for smaller families. The Everyday Entry™ keeps backpacks and sports gear tidy, and the connected Pulte Planning Center® helps to manage your busy family life. The spacious kitchen flows into the café and gathering areas, a natural fit for family together time or entertaining. The upstairs loft acts as a multiuse retreat - large, open, and inviting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,390
• − Property taxes: −$8,673
• − Insurance: −$2,891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,191
• − Management: −$4,191
• − Depreciation: −$16,821
• Taxable loss: −$16,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Lake City
• NCES district ID: 3904812
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,608
• Composite: 69.66/100
• National rank: #296
• State rank: #48 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #736

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon Lake, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,752
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,752
• Household income: $115,567
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.16%
• Current HPI: 207.1177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+5.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $473,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $468,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $462,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $460,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $458,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-22 Listed $450,990 Zillow