12 Redwood Dr

Woodbury, NY 10930

$294,925C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 1980 · Townhouse · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$860
• HOA: −$335
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-612/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $82,579

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-612/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (3.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.9% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.