12 Redwood Dr · Woodbury, NY 10930

$294,925

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,388 sqft · Townhouse public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1980 960 sqft lot $212/sqft · 19% below area Est $364k · 19% under $335/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roomy 3 Bedroom townhome in Timber Ridge, offering an open layout on the first floor. Living Room has sliding glass doors to a private deck facing the woods. Second floor offers 3 good size bedrooms and a full hallway bath. The lower level has mechanicals, laundry room with potential for additional living space, over 600 square feet. This is a short sale, third party approval needed. Realtor in charge of negotiations with bank.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Laundry room
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE DECK
• FACING THE WOODS
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-612/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (3.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.9% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,229 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,205
• List price: $294,925
• Delta: -19.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Acorn Ct	0.08mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,388 (0%)	19mo	$308,000	$222	75
7 Ash Ct	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,380 (-1%)	18mo	$400,000	$290	72
27 Butternut Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-1%)	16mo	$403,000	$292	68
7 Helene Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+2%)	18mo	$430,000	$305	66
11 Plum Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-2%)	15mo	$425,000	$312	64
16 Terra Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,575 (+14%)	16mo	$348,500	$221	58
5 Fox Meadow Dr	0.31mi	3/3.5	1,505 (+8%)	11mo	$485,000	$322	54
6 Horizon Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,569 (+13%)	13mo	$485,000	$309	50
8 Horizon Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,569 (+13%)	18mo	$460,000	$293	46
3 Highview Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,569 (+13%)	18mo	$430,000	$274	42
17 Rockridge Dr	0.35mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,569 (+13%)	16mo	$415,000	$264	39
8 Canyon Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,569 (+13%)	19mo	$430,000	$274	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-50,553
• Equity at exit: $43,974

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,237
• Equity at exit: $25,500

Cash invested: $82,579 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10930

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$737 /mo · $8,840/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$335
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,470

Max offer price $285,921

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,731
• Closing costs: $8,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Mountainview Dr Highland Mills, NY	4.0	1.5	1622	$3,500	$2.16	23d	1	0.33mi
8 Fillmore Ct Highland Mills, NY	3.0	1.5	1836	$3,300	$1.80	21d	1	0.40mi
468 State Route 32 Highland Mills, NY	3.0	2.5	1722	$2,250	$1.31	21d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $335 · $4,020/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,925 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,925 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,925 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,925 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,925 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,925 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,925 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,925 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,925 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $294,925 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,925 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,925 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,925 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,925 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,925 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $294,925 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Roomy 3 Bedroom townhome in Timber Ridge, offering an open layout on the first floor. Living Room has sliding glass doors to a private deck facing the woods. Second floor offers 3 good size bedrooms and a full hallway bath. The lower level has mechanicals, laundry room with potential for additional living space, over 600 square feet. This is a short sale, third party approval needed. Realtor in charge of negotiations with bank.

17. 2026-04-06
    listed $249,925 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Roomy 3 Bedroom townhome in Timber Ridge, offering an open layout on the first floor. Living Room has sliding glass doors to a private deck facing the woods. Second floor offers 3 good size bedrooms and a full hallway bath. The lower level has mechanicals, laundry room with potential for additional living space, over 600 square feet. This is a short sale, third party approval needed. Realtor in charge of negotiations with bank.

18. 2024-07-05
    status Active
19. 2024-04-12
    historical
20. 2024-02-13
    status Pending
21. 2023-10-13
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2004-09-15
    soldstatus $261,000
23. 2000-07-07
    soldstatus $124,500
24. 2000-06-20
    price $134,900
25. 2000-06-20
    historical
26. 2000-03-19
    listed $124,500
27. 1987-05-18
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,840 · $737/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,840 · $737/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,520
• − Property taxes: −$8,840
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,269
• − Management: −$3,269
• − HOA: −$4,020
• − Depreciation: −$8,580
• Taxable loss: −$5,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe-Woodbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $104,681
• Composite: 50.48/100
• National rank: #1855
• State rank: #250 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #11975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodbury, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 9,402
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,569
• Household income: $120,098
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 104.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 271.431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+118.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $294,925 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $249,925 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-05 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-13 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $261,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-07 Sold (MLS) $124,500 HGMLS
• 2000-06-20 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2000-06-20 Price Changed $134,900 HGMLS
• 2000-03-19 Listed $124,500 HGMLS
• 1987-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,840 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.