48 Lutheran St

Newburgh, NY 12550

$299,900B+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,532 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,547/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$862
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$955
• Net cashflow: $1,157/mo
• Annual: $13,887/yr
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.54%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $579/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $187k; list at $300k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,547/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?