48 Lutheran St · Newburgh, NY 12550

$299,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,532 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot $118/sqft · 42% below area Est $521k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Estate sale! Brick 2 family in the heart of Newburgh. Fully rented, ready for new owners. Come take a look before its too late!

Key facts

• Heart of newburgh
• Fully rented
• Brick 2 family

Tags

• BRICK 2 FAMILY
• FULLY RENTED
• HEART OF NEWBURGH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $579/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,547/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $187k; list at $300k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.54%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $521,199
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -42.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Lutheran St	0.08mi	6/2.0	2,508 (-1%)	13mo	$380,000	$152	84
17 Lutheran St	0.08mi	6/2.0	2,670 (+6%)	15mo	$285,000	$107	74
60 Johnston St	0.20mi	6/2.0	2,625 (+4%)	18mo	$298,000	$114	70
181 First St	0.17mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,450 (-3%)	15mo	$335,000	$137	69
52 Benkard Ave	0.49mi	6/3.0	2,400 (-5%)	5mo	$375,000	$156	61
157 Johnston St	0.33mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,240 (-12%)	1mo	$285,000	$127	56
298 Liberty St	0.46mi	6/3.0	2,573 (+2%)	20mo	$370,000	$144	55
15 E Parmenter St	0.42mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,468 (-2%)	24mo	$555,000	$225	49
2 Carson Ave	0.68mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,396 (-5%)	9mo	$375,000	$157	42
186 S William St	0.39mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (-15%)	8mo	$408,000	$189	42
145 Renwick St	0.55mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,760 (+9%)	14mo	$285,000	$103	38
100 Courtney Ave	0.67mi	6/3.0	2,772 (+10%)	18mo	$485,000	$175	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $14,808
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $67,536
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,547 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$737 /mo · $8,847/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$955
• Net cashflow: $1,157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,082

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,327	-5% $1,242	+0% $1,157	+5% $1,072	+10% $987
Rent	-10% $798	-5% $978	+0% $1,157	+5% $1,337	+10% $1,516
Rate	-1.0pp $1,308	-0.5pp $1,234	base $1,157	+0.5pp $1,080	+1.0pp $1,000

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,546
Total (2 units)			$4,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
87 Ellis Ave Newburgh, NY	5.0	2.5	2172	$2,500	$1.15	44d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $299,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2025-12-18
   listed $299,900 Active 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Estate sale! Brick 2 family in the heart of Newburgh. Fully rented, ready for new owners. Come take a look before its too late!

4. 2025-11-20
   historical
5. 2025-10-02
   status Active
6. 2025-10-01
   historical
7. 2025-03-28
   price $350,000
8. 2025-03-08
   price $359,900
9. 2024-05-15
   price $379,900
10. 2024-03-22
    listed $389,900 Active
11. 2005-12-20
    soldstatus $186,900
12. 2005-12-15
    soldstatus $186,900
13. 2005-12-15
    soldstatus $186,900
14. 2005-12-14
    soldstatus $186,900
15. 2005-12-14
    soldstatus $186,900
16. 2005-11-12
    historical
17. 2005-11-12
    price $189,900
18. 2005-11-12
    price $189,900
19. 2005-11-12
    historical
20. 2005-05-14
    listed $186,900
21. 2005-05-14
    listed $186,900
22. 2005-05-14
    listed $189,900
23. 2005-05-14
    listed $189,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,847 · $737/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,847 · $737/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$8,847
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,365
• − Management: −$4,365
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $9,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,391
• After-tax cash flow: $11,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+60.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $359,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $379,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-22 Listed $389,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $186,900 Public Records
• 2005-12-15 Sold (MLS) $186,900 HGMLS
• 2005-12-15 Sold (MLS) $186,900 HGMLS
• 2005-12-14 Sold (MLS) $186,900 HVCRMLS
• 2005-12-14 Sold (MLS) $186,900 HVCRMLS
• 2005-11-12 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-11-12 Price Changed $189,900 HGMLS
• 2005-11-12 Price Changed $189,900 HGMLS
• 2005-11-12 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listed $189,900 HVCRMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listed $189,900 HVCRMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listed $186,900 HGMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listed $186,900 HGMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,847 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.