116 National Union Blvd

Mystic Island, NJ 08087

$249,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-436/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.